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8/26/2008

New home sales rose at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.4% over last month, but is still down about 35% from the year ago numbers. Additionally, existing home sales rose 3.1% to a level not seen in five months. Though the housing market is still down substantially from last year these two recent reports are encouraging!

8/14/2008

Foreclosures were up by more than fifty percent over the same period a year ago. Nevada, California, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia and Michigan continue to lead the pack in foreclosure filings. See the report on Fox News here.

7/25/2008

The latest housing predictions are in! Second quarter numbers for new home sales were in line with our expectations. Spokane, WA median prices for existing homes were up in the first quarter of this year versus the first quarter of last year! That despite the fact that median prices were down Nationally in quarter over quarter figures. See the Housing Recovery Prediction Article here.

7/24/2008

Existing Homes Sales fell 2.6% in June and are fifteen and a half percent lower than the year ago numbers according to NAR. Inventories also increased over the past month. See the Existing Home Sales Article here.

7/24/2008

NAR issues a statement regarding the problems with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac:

"The following is a statement by National Association of Realtors^® President Richard F. Gaylord:

“The National Association of Realtors^® welcomes the strong response this weekend by the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve Board in response to the market turmoil and apparent overreactions that began last week affecting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The health of the American economy depends on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the steps taken by the U.S. government make clear that the role of Fannie and Freddie, in making fair and affordable mortgage loans available for home owners and home buyers, must not and cannot be interrupted.

“We support the federal government’s actions and authorization to help ensure the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to promote the availability of home mortgage credit during a period of stress in the financial markets. Fannie and Freddie play a central role in our housing finance system, and we agree that they must continue to do so as we work through the current housing correction.”'

7/22/08

Mortgage rates have moved about a percent higher over the past six months and NAR predicts they are headed even higher. And even as NAR predicts that the bottom is in and that we should see a gradual recovery in both prices and units sold going into the 4th quarter of this year and next year, the credit crunch continues. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suffer woes and it appears that the credit crunch may get significantly worse before it gets better. How will that dampen expectations for a recovery?

7/10/2008

Fox News is reporting that home foreclosures jumped by 53% in the month of June versus June 2007. Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Michigan and California continue to lead in foreclosures. See the foreclosure article here.

6/25/2008

Sales of new single family homes were down 2.5% below the month ago rate and 40.3% below the year ago figures. The latest day may suggest a stall in the slow recovery process. See the predictions page for more.

6/17/2008

Building permits were down 1.3% from April 2008 and down more than thirty six percent from the year ago number. Housing starts were 3.3% below the April number and down thirty two percent from a year ago. Single family housing starts were down one percent from April. Housing completions were up 11.6% since April but is still down almost twenty seven percent from a year ago. Single family housing completions were up 8.9%.

Again the data is flat to weak, but still seems to suggest that a slow recovery is in place as we predicted.

6/9/2008

April pending home sales unexpectedly bounced 6.3% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to National Association of Realtors .  Economists expected sales to fall 0.4%.  The reading is the highest since October, but is still 13% below one year ago. Nevertheless it does lend further credence to our prediction!

5/30/2008

Tax figures are in and the assessor says that property tax values declined by two to five percent over the last years assessed values.

But as is typical of taxing authorities, they lag the market. Some upside pricing pressure is already starting to take hold in the new home market, and NAR expects existing homes to follow suit later this year or early next year. To see the original article on tax assessed values visit the Coeur d'Alene Press.

5/27/2008

The latest new home sales report is out and has been incorporated in our Housing Predictions Article. Some news sources are reporting it as "surprising." See one of those articles by clicking here.

5/23/2008

NAR goes on the record - again! As you probably already know we made our prediction on the housing recovery in October of last year, and it appears that prediction was indeed accurate. Meanwhile we have sometimes teased the National Association of Realtors as they flip flopped back and forth in their opinions over the months. Then we got excited when, in the late first quarter and early second quarter, NAR finally reiterated the same opinion twice in a row! Now they seemed to agree with us, and they seemed to be sticking with it - how exciting! Well now NAR had released a video that again reiterates and presents their case for a second half housing recovery.

5/19/2008

Just remember, you heard it here first! The National Association for Business Economics said today that the housing slump will end this year. They provide additional insight to the economy as well. Read the report on Fox News here. In addition to this latest report the Wall Street Journal recently released an opinion piece which also proclaimed the housing slump to be over! So it is truly starting to appear that our original prediction issued in October of 2007 may in fact have been correct. Score one more point for proprietary data analysis and compilation.

5/14/2008

Core inflation appears to be in check with the most recent report showing a small one tenth of one percent uptick in both the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted numbers. It is a bit baffling as to why the non-core inflation has not trickled into the core numbers. Read our report on the US Dollar and inflation here.

5/8/2008

Has it finally bottomed? For the third time in a row the National Association of Realtors has released a report indicating that the bottom may be in. "A flat pattern in home sales activity should continue for the next couple months before improving over the summer, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®." Truly amazing given how they waffled back and forth from the third quarter of last year through the first quarter of this year. But once again NAR has agreed with our latest predictions, now indicating that the bottom is in but also that the bottom will be flatter and lengthier than we originally anticipated.

Read the full article from the National Association of Realtors by clicking here.

5/5/2008

Less than two months until our Coeur d'Alene Area Real Estate article will be updated with its semi-annual data! This week we will be working on our Strong Dollar Inflationary Report. A sustained period of inflation could hurt the housing market - so keep your eyes peeled for updates to that article as well. Meanwhile Kootenai County mortgages are running fast and furious, according to IHA. In the dismal 2006 housing market only 162 IHA loans were made. In the first four months of this year 140 loans have already been made through IHA. See the IHA Loan Article in the CDA Press.

4/24/2008

New Home Sales figures for the first quarter of 2008 are in. Get the numbers on our Real Estate Recovery Prediction Page.

4/22/2008

NAR released its Existing Home Sales Report. Sales were down two percent over last month and 19.3% from the year ago figure. Preliminary sales price numbers were $200,700, down 7.7% over last years prices at this time. However those numbers reflect seasonal adjustments. The non-seasonally adjusted numbers were up in all areas against the month ago figures, though still down from last year. View the entire report by clicking here. New Home Sales figures will be released on Thursday.

3/11/2008

NAR releases its latest predictions! THE BOTTOM IS IN! So says the National Association of Realtors in regards to existing home sales. NAR is expecting flat sales through the Spring and then a gradual recovery for the rest of 2008. Prices of existing homes are still expected to drop about 1.2% before moving up about three and a half percent in 2009. Read the predictions here.

Our predictions on new home sales can be found here.

2/17/2008

Several reports are streaming in on Washington County home sales. To see the report on Washington County Home Sales Statistics at Best Homes and Land, click here. To see the report on KXLY, click here.

2/7/2008

Pending home sales fell one and a half percent in December. Read the story on Fox News

1/29/2008

Our Housing Predictions Article has been updated and now incorporates the latest figures from Commerce.

1/28/2008

December new home sales have been released. An estimated 774,000 new homes were sold in 2007. This is 26.4% below the 2006 figures. Read the report from Commerce by clicking here.

We anticipate updating our Housing Recovery Prediction page by 1/29/2008 at 10:00AM PST.

1/24/2008

The National Association of Realtors has issued its December 2007 report on Existing Home Sales and EHS Prices. For single families, condos and co-ops; Non-seasonally adjusted figures were down 23.2% over the prior year, with the West being hit the hardest and down more than 28%. Average sales price of existing homes was down almost five percent (the median was down six percent) and the west was down 7.8% on average or more than eleven percent on median.

View data from the above report by clicking here.

View the press release on the seasonally adjusted housing data here.

1/23/2008

The Coeur d'Alene Press has published an article that deals with homes on less than an acre in Kootenai County, Idaho. Jump to the Idaho Housing Statistics article on their website by clicking here.

1/17/2008

New home construction starts in 2007 sat at 1.353 million, down almost twenty five percent from the previous year. It was the second largest drop in recorded history. Indeed the dismal news that we predicted back in the third quarter of last year is now coming to bear - and strengthens our belief that a bottom is forming. See the story on Fox Business

1/15/2008

An article has been posted which suggests a method by which foreclosures can be reduced and home buyers can be more informed - helping them to avoid predatory lending practices. Read the Foreclosure Avoidance Article here.

The Absorption Rate is a method proposed by NAR to help home sellers better understand the current housing market. We enhance the recommendations of NAR by constructing an online AR Calculator and by telling you how you can use the figure to zero in on a listing price as suggested by a CMA (Competitive Market Analysis)

1/8/2008

The National Association of Realtors now believes that existing home sales will increase only slightly in 2008 and start a more significant recovery in 2009. Preliminary pricing data seems suggests to NAR that 2007 prices were down a bit less than two percent, may hold steady this year and then increase in 2009 by about three percent.

NAR is also reporting that they expect a decline in new home sales in 2008. Despite pushing the new home sales recovery into 2009 NAR says that new home prices were down about two percent in 2007 and they may rise four tenths of a percent in 2008 and then finally show a significant price increase in 2009 as NAR projects a near six percent price increase for new homes.

12/31/2007

The National Association of Realtors reported Monday that sales of existing single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses rose 0.4% in November from October, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units. Over the last 12 months, however, existing home sales have plunged 20%, underscoring the troubles in the housing sector.

Read the full report on Fox Business News

12/28/2007

Just reported by the Dept. of Commerce, November New Home Sales fell to 647K or 9%, from a the prior revised reading of 711K.

We are in the process of analyzing the data and will update our 2008 housing market projections page within 48 hours.

12/19/2007

Home foreclosures are down from a month ago - but don't get too excited. The figure is still up a whopping 68% from the year ago figure! Read the report on Fox Business News for a better understanding of the depth and breadth of the foreclosure problem.

We have released a report specific to the Coeur d'Alene Housing Market. Read it by clicking here.

12/13/2007

The Federal Reserve joined with Canadian and European central banks yesterday in a massive operation to inject as much as $64 billion into global money markets to prod reluctant banks into making loans again. Read the article in the Washington Times by clicking here.

12/8/2007

The Coeur d'Alene Press reports that residential listings are up twenty percent from a year ago, but down five percent from last month. For the six month period ending on October 31st the average sales price is down half a percent while the median sales price is down four percent. Read the original article in The Press by clicking here.

12/6/2007

President Bush is unveiling a plan to freeze some sub-prime mortgage rates for five years in an effort to stem the tide of foreclosures. Read the full article here on Fox News.

11/29/2007

The U.S. Department of Commerce has released its latest report on New Home Sales. New single family home sales increased 1.7% from the month ago figure but is still down more than twenty-three percent from the year ago figure. These new figures are being fed into our proprietary prediction algorithm and we will post any changes to the prediction page once that process is complete. Make sure you have signed up to receive updates for the housing prediction page if you have not already done so by clicking here and entering your email address!

11/25/2007

The National Association of Realtors has issued its third quarter sales estimates for existing single family homes. The difference between what is projected nationally versus what is projected in the Coeur d'Alene and Spokane Washington areas is quite significant! Although our Real Estate Predictions for the 2008 Housing Market is based on new home sales data instead of existing, this report from NAR still lends credence to our own proprietary report. Read our predictions and the latest updates by clicking here.

11/25/2007

Once again other companies are illegally taking advantage of our tremendous popularity. Tens of thousands of emails are being sent with forged headers which appear to make the emails come from Data Choices LLC, but in reality are coming from China, Canada and other countries outside the U.S. These forged emails are selling Viagra, pirated software and other products and services that have NOTHING to do with Real Estate, the housing market or optimization for your web site for Internet promotion and marketing purposes! Official emails from Data Choices LLC will ALWAYS comply with CAN-SPAM and have an easy unsubscribe option posted at the bottom of the email! If you ever have any doubt you may go to our support form and copy and paste the email there and we will let you know if it really came from our office! We do not and never will support illegally forged SPAM!

11/21/2007

The National Association of Realtors reports stabilization in the commercial real estate market. The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity slipped only one tenth of one percent to a value of 120.6 in the third quarter from a record reading of 120.7 in the second quarter, but remains 0.7 percent higher than the third quarter of 2006 when it stood at 119.7. The dip follows nine consecutive quarterly increases; NAR’s track of the index dates back to 1990. See their full report by clicking here.

11/13/2007 Update

Pending home sales rose two tenths of one percent from last month. Unfortunately the number is still down more than twenty percent from the year ago level. Read the report from NAR by clicking here.

11/13/2007

Pending home sales are due to be released today at noon (PST). Expectations are for a decline, but one that is smaller than last month's.

11/9/2007

The Joint Economic Committee releases its report on foreclosures that includes some dire warnings about the U.S. Economy. Read the document by clicking here.

11/1/2007

Foreclosures more than doubled from last year according to third quarter figures from RealtyTrac Inc. And third quarter figures were also up almost 34% from the second quarter of this year. Nevada was the worst with one foreclosure for every sixty one homes, followed by California at one for every 88 homes and Florida took third place with one foreclosure in every 95 households.

Read the report on Fox News by clicking here

10/29/2007

Project Valour IT kicks off today! This not for profit organization provides voice enabled laptops to injured soldiers. Please consider visiting their website and making a donation by clicking here!

10/26/2007

Take the Housing Recovery Survey by clicking here and tell us what you think!

10/26/2007

Countrywide, who has been in the midst of the mortgage default firestorm, reported today that it lost $1.2 Billion in its third quarter. Countrywide was forced to set aside millions in loan-loss provisions and write downs and it was their first reported loss in twenty five years. Despite that Countrywide predicted that it would be profitable not only next year, but in the fourth quarter of this year as well! Could that be the Housing Market Turnaround that we have been predicting?

10/25/2007

The U.S. Census Bureau reports that New Home Sales for September fell more than 23% over the year ago YTD figures! They do caution that this number is plus or minus eight percent, which is a very hefty margin of error. They further report that the median sales price was $238,000 and the average sales price was $288,000. (Average versus mean is used statistically to help determine how significant the median or average numbers are as they relate to standard deviations) See our updated predictions here.

Current inventory stands at 8.3 months. You may view the original report by clicking here.

10/24/2007

This just in! The National Association of Realtors has

just reported that existing home sales fell eight percent in

September, much more than the 4.6% decline that was

expected. If you have not yet seen our report on

Housing Market Predictions for 2008 then you need to read it now by clicking here!

NAR also reported that the national average sale price fell 4.2% for September. This initial data would seem to suggest that prices have a bit further to fall before a recovery can take hold. The Midwest experienced a price increase of 1.4% and a half percent gain in price was seen in the Northeast. The hardest hit area price-wise was the West, down 8.8%, followed by the South, down five and a half percent. See the full report from NAR here.

10/22/2007

NEWSFLASH: Based on data from the Census Bureau and in regards to new homes sold we are now anticipating a bottom to the housing market in terms of new units sold in the first quarter of 2008. We believe that the first quarter numbers will be dismal (data should be released near the end of April 2008) and people will begin thinking and speaking the worst of the housing market based on the data. But the recovery will already be underway and we expect a strong recovery in the second quarter of 2008 (2Q data to be released in July 2008). This analysis is only an opinion and should not be relied upon for investment purposes. The analysis is based on government data (U.S. Census Bureau Data). Analysis techniques used are proprietary to Data Choices and the end results are merely an opinion. See the housing recovery report by clicking here!

10/21/2007

Sellers are offering incentives to bring in buyers, including paying closing costs and points to help the buyers qualify. This as the result of the tighter credit market due to mortgage defaults. Read the complete story in the CDA Press by clicking here!

10/16/2007

Check out your contractors before you hire them! Read this man's story about his home improvement project by clicking here!

10/15/2007

KB Homes announced that its CEO would retire next year. Additionally, in a particularly negative outlook the company said that it did not expect the housing market to recover until 2009 at the earliest. We think we will see a bottom before 2009. Read the KB Homes announcement on Reuters by clicking here.

10/10/2007

240 foreclosed homes were auctioned off in the Washington D.C. area recently. Many were from homeowners who had little choice except to walk away from mortgages they could not afford. Read the Foreclosed Home Auction Story in the Washington Times.

10/4/2007

Recently an unscrupulous company in China has been emailing tens of thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) of people and using the Data Choices name. While we are proud of our marketing efforts (you can go to Google or Yahoo and simply type in our name, Data Choices, and we will return on the FIRST Page!) there are companies that seek to take an illegal piggyback ride on our success.

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They are primarily selling pirated software and Viagra - neither of which Data Choices sells. If this were a domestic company we would use the full strength of the law to stop them. Unfortunately that is not the case. Official Data Choices marketing emails always contain unsubscribe information at the bottom of the email. If a clear and easy method to unsubscribe from the marketing list is not provided then you can be assured that the email did NOT come from Data Choices!

9/28/2007

The Notebook Review and Editor's Choice Awards is out!

9/27/2007

New Home Sales in August fell 12.8% from August of 2006. The drop was larger than expected. Housing inventory rose four tenths of a percent and at current sales rates a ten month supply is now on the market. The inability for some to obtain mortgages given the tighter credit market was blamed in part.

The Housing Inventory Article can be found here.

9/26/2007

The National Association of Realtors has released its single family home median sales price report.

9/26/2007

Last week the Senate moved to make FHA reforms which may help prospective homeowners obtain financing for their dream home! The National Association of Realtors applauds the move. Read the article!

Previous Posts:

2007 Realtor of the Year Award

Twenty years in the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors earned Anne Anderson, co-owner of Lakeshore Realty and a certified commercial investment member, the respect of her peers. Anderson was named the association's Realtor of the Year 2007 at Wednesday's general membership meeting of the organization.

Kelly Hanson (left and 2006 Realtor of the Year) and Anne Anderson, the new 2007 recipient!

See complete article in the Coeur d'Alene Press!

Real Estate Marketing Strategies, or Real Estate SEO is a tricky business! Data Choices would like to help you succeed!

Existing Home Sales July 2007

According to the National Association of Realtors, preliminary sales of existing homes were down nine percent in July over the year ago period. The hardest hit areas continue to be the west and the south. This can, in turn, be harmful to North Idaho and Spokane, given that so many people relocate from California, Arizona and Nevada.

More information can be garnered and theorized when we look at prices versus the year ago period. Throughout the U.S. prices were down only six tenths of one percent, to just under $229,000. This is still higher than the almost $222,000 sale price average for all of 2006! Additionally, in one of the hardest hit areas (the west) prices were actually up by nine tenths of a percent! In the south prices fell 3.2%, though they are still up over the average 2006 whole year selling price.

So what does all this mean? When existing home sales are down in a region and supply continues to grow, prices will usually fall until they reach the new equilibrium price created by the supply/demand graph. So the rise in prices in the west defies that standard economic theory and says one of two things:

Either people in the west are expecting a quick recovery or

They are holding out either because they cannot afford to sell for less or don't feel like they need to sell . . . yet.

Meanwhile the prices in the south fell, but at about one third the rate at which existing home sales were down. Again, a similar type situation may be developing. Our data and trend analysis in this area continues.

Subprime Market Hits Two of the Big Three

September 5th, 2007

The Washington Times today reports that the subprime housing crisis has hit the auto makers - including Toyota.

Ford sales were down more than fourteen percent, Chrysler down more than six percent and even Toyota was down almost three percent. GM managed to buck the trend and its sales were up more than six percent over the year ago period.

It has been widely reported that many people used the housing boom to create their own personal ATM - refinancing their loans at the higher assessed values and then taking cash out - not only their built up equity from their previous loan but also cash reflecting the newly valued higher price of the home, essentially repurchasing their own home. People then used the cash to buy cars and other products which helped spur the U.S. economy.

But as they say, all good things must end. And with house values down twenty percent or more in many areas, people are struggling to make higher mortgage payments - forced to cut spending elsewhere. Adding to this are the people that bought houses solely for the purpose of "flipping" them, now saddled with the inability to unload the house for what they paid.

And finally there are the "too creative" financing schemes that have put many families in trouble. The Mortgage Bankers Association, ahead of its September 6th conference call to address foreclosures, released the following information:

As of June 30 this chart represents the non owner-occupied homes in default in relation to loan type, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association

Example: Of the total defaults in Nevada, thirty two percent of prime loan defaults were non owner occupied and twenty four percent of the sub-prime defaults were non owner occupied. *Defaults or seriously delinquent.

This seems to indicate that about a quarter of the defaulting properties are either rentals or "flippers" in most of the U.S. Unfortunately for North Idaho and Spokane, Arizona, California and Nevada are huge feeder markets for this part of the country. The extremely high rate of more speculative real estate ventures in these states has hurt and is likely to continue to hurt the North Idaho Real Estate market for awhile to come.

Stay tuned for the September 6th conference call from the Mortgage Bankers Association in regards to defaulting or seriously delinquent loans.

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